How to set a launch target when last year’s numbers do not exist

You have a product ready, a launch date in the calendar and no previous launch to compare it with. There is no sensible reason to copy someone else’s conversion rate, but you still need a number to work towards. A grounded target comes from four things you can inspect: how many relevant people you can reach, how many may buy, what you will charge and how long you will actively sell.

Start with the people you can actually reach

Write down the audiences you can contact during the selling period: your email list, an active community, people who have registered for a relevant event, regular social viewers, or an affiliate’s audience if you have an agreed promotion. Do not add every person who has ever encountered your work. A follower who has not seen a post for months is not the same as someone who opens your launch email.

Use one number for each channel and mark how you counted it. For example, you might have 420 people on a relevant email segment, 180 regular viewers and 60 people on a pre-launch list. If some people appear in more than one place, do not add them twice. Deduct the overlap, or use the most reliable channel as your base and treat the others as possible extra reach.

The useful question is not “How large is my audience?” It is “How many relevant people can I put this offer in front of, with enough context for them to decide?” A small list with a clear problem match can be more useful for a forecast than a large, mixed audience. That is a mechanism, not a promise: relevance reduces the number of people who need to understand why the product is for them.

Choose a conversion assumption you can challenge

Conversion means the share of reached people who buy. When last year’s numbers do not exist, you cannot make this figure empirical for your own launch. You can still make it explicit. Choose a cautious percentage, apply it to your reachable audience and record why you chose it.

The arithmetic is simple: reachable people × conversion rate = estimated buyers. In the example, 500 × 0.03 = 15 buyers. The value is in seeing what would have to be true for the result to happen. If your expected target is 15 buyers, you need either 500 relevant people at 3%, more reach, a higher conversion rate, or a different offer. You cannot fix a reach problem by quietly assuming a better conversion rate.

Turn buyers into a revenue target

Set the price before you set the revenue goal. If your product costs £49 and your expected scenario is 15 buyers, gross revenue is £49 × 15 = £735. If your minimum scenario is five buyers, it is £245. If your stretch scenario is 25 buyers, it is £1,225. These are gross figures, before Stripe’s processing fee and any other business costs.

Keep the buyer target and the revenue target separate. Revenue can rise because you sold more units, charged more, or both. If you are still testing the offer, a buyer target may be the better operational goal: it tells you how many people need to experience the product and give you useful feedback. If you need to cover a specific cost, calculate the required buyers directly: total cost divided by price, then round up.

Account for the time you have to sell

A launch is not just an audience calculation. You also have a finite period in which people can notice the offer, understand it, ask questions and buy. If you have 10 active selling days and an expected target of 15 buyers, your working pace is 1.5 buyers per day. That is not a prediction that sales will arrive evenly. It is a check on whether your promotion plan has enough activity.

1. 1Choose the launch window and count the days you can realistically promote, answer questions and fulfil the product.
2. 2List the actions that create reach: launch emails, useful posts, a live session, direct conversations or an affiliate promotion.
3. 3Assign each action a date and a purpose. An explanation post may create understanding; a deadline email may prompt a decision.
4. 4Review the target halfway through the window. Compare actual buyers and reach with the scenario rather than changing the target to protect your feelings.
5. 5After launch, record reach, clicks, purchases, refunds, questions and the timing of sales. Those observations become your next baseline.

Your selling capacity is part of the forecast. If you are also writing the product, providing support and doing every promotion yourself, a large launch window may create work you cannot serve well. store.fan can give you a storefront at store.fan/yourname, with checkout and delivery handled in one place. Its analytics tools can help you inspect what happened, but they cannot tell you why a visitor chose not to buy.

Build the target as a decision tool

Put your assumptions in a small worksheet: reachable audience, overlap, conversion rate, price, selling days and the work required to deliver each sale. Then write the decision attached to each scenario. For example, five buyers might mean you run the product as a small beta; 15 might mean you open the full delivery schedule; 25 might mean you add a second support session or pause promotion to protect quality.

If you sell a digital download, course, coaching call, webinar, membership or community, the delivery constraint changes. A download may be available immediately, while coaching creates a fixed number of appointments. A course may need time for questions. Your target is only grounded when the promised experience remains possible at the stretch number.

For selling and follow-up, store.fan’s paid plans start with a 14-day trial. Pro adds email marketing, discount codes, flash campaigns, hosted course video and creator-run affiliate programmes. store.fan takes 0% of sales, while Stripe’s own processing fee still applies, and money goes directly to your Stripe account. Check the plan and payment details before treating projected gross revenue as money available to spend.

What to do when the forecast is wrong

A miss is useful if you can locate the broken assumption. Fewer people saw the offer than planned: the reach estimate was too high. Plenty visited but few bought: inspect the promise, proof, price and buying friction. People bought but delivery became unmanageable: the offer or capacity needs changing. More buyers than expected: check whether you can maintain the promised standard before extending the launch.

Do not revise the original forecast after seeing the result and call the new number a prediction. Keep the first version, add the actual figures and write one sentence about the difference. Your next launch will still contain uncertainty, but it will start with observed behaviour rather than a blank page.