Should you chase every new format: a decision rule that holds up
Platforms reward whatever they are pushing this quarter. Here is how to decide which experiments deserve a month of your attention and which do not.
A new format launched on Tuesday. By Wednesday three people you respect had posted about the reach they were getting, and by Thursday you had drafted a plan to make eight of them a week on top of everything else you already make. This happens roughly every quarter, and the reason it works on you is that it is occasionally correct. Sometimes the early wave really is worth catching. The problem is that you have no rule for telling the difference, so you either chase all of them or none.
Why the pull is so hard to resist
When a platform launches something, it needs supply. For a few months it will show that format to people who never asked for it, which means creators who post early get numbers they could not get anywhere else. That is not a rumour, it is just how a launch works, and it is why the early-mover stories are always genuine.
The honest complication is that those numbers are borrowed. The reach is subsidised, and when the subsidy ends, the format settles into whatever it was actually worth. Some formats are worth a lot afterwards. Some are worth nothing, and by the time you know which, you have built a habit around it and feel obliged to keep going.
The other complication is that your attention does not scale. Adding a format never means adding a format; it means quietly demoting something else. Usually the thing demoted is the boring work that was already producing sales, because that work does not shout. Six weeks later reach is up and revenue is down, and the connection is not obvious unless you are looking at both.
Chasing everything, or running one experiment
The difference is not enthusiasm. Both columns describe someone working hard. Only one of them will be able to say what happened.
| Chasing everything | One experiment at a time |
|---|---|
| Three new things started this quarter, none finished | One thing started, run for four weeks, then judged |
| Success is measured in views, because views arrive first | Success is measured in buyers and revenue per product |
| No stopping condition, so nothing is ever dropped | The stopping condition was written down on day one |
| The work that already sells gets thinner | The core work is protected and the experiment fits around it |
| You cannot tell which change caused which result | Only one variable moved, so the answer is readable |
| Burnout arrives before the verdict does | Four weeks ends whether it worked or not |
The rule, in five questions
Before you commit a month, answer these out loud. Three noes and you skip it without guilt, which is the whole point of having a rule rather than a mood.
- 1Does this format suit work you already make, or does it require a new skill you would be learning in public for six weeks?
- 2Can you produce it at a sustainable rate, meaning the rate you could still hit in week ten, not week one?
- 3Does it have a route to your link? A format that cannot carry a link is reach with no exit, and reach with no exit is a hobby.
- 4What is your stopping condition? Write the number now: buyers, not views, over four weeks.
- 5What are you dropping to make room? If the answer is "nothing", you have not made a decision, you have made a wish.
What four weeks of evidence looks like
Imagine you commit to the new format for four weeks, twelve posts, and the reach is genuinely good: tens of thousands of views where your usual work gets hundreds. It feels like the best decision you have made all year. Then you open traffic source and per-product analytics for the same four weeks.
Two outcomes are common. In the first, the new source shows visits but almost no buyers, while your steady channel still produces most of the revenue. That is not a failure, it is an answer: the format is a top-of-funnel tool at best and does not deserve to be the centre of your week. In the second, the new source sends fewer visits but they convert at a normal rate, which means the audience is right even if it is small. That one is worth another month. Either way the decision took four weeks and one look at the numbers rather than a year of drift. The analytics you get from Starter are enough to run this properly.
Reach is rented. The list, the link and the product are the parts you own, and they are the parts that were never trending.
Give every experiment somewhere to send people: one link, ten product types and per-product numbers to judge by.
Start for freeThe mistake most people make
Running two experiments at once because the month felt slow. If you add a format and change your pricing in the same fortnight, you have learned nothing about either, and you will attribute the result to whichever one you were more emotionally invested in. Change one thing. The other reliable mistake is judging on week one, when the subsidised reach is at its peak and no buyer has had time to make up their mind. Everything on your storefront keeps working during a slow experiment, which is exactly why the experiment does not need to be rushed.
Four weeks is usually the shortest honest window. It is long enough for the initial reach spike to settle and for a buyer who found you in week one to actually decide.
Buyers, and revenue per product. Views tell you the platform is distributing your work. Only buyers tell you the work reached people who wanted what you sell.
Then it can only ever be awareness, and you should size the investment accordingly. Awareness is worth something, but it is worth less than a channel that can send someone to your storefront.
Yes, when it suits work you already produce and costs you almost nothing extra to publish. The rule is not about avoiding new things, it is about avoiding new things that require a month you have not got.
New formats will keep arriving, roughly on schedule, with the same convincing early numbers each time. A rule does not make you conservative. It makes you able to say yes properly when something is worth it, because you are not already committed to three things you started in April and never judged. If you have nowhere for the reach to land yet, set up a storefront before the next launch arrives.
Set up the destination first, then run whatever experiment you like knowing you will be able to read the result.
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